Page 257 - James Rodger Fleming - Fixing the sky

the dramatic warming of the Arctic, identified and measured by 1940, which, had
it continued, could have resulted in “a new and stable climatic regime” in which
the Arctic ocean became ice-free.
From climate “triggers,” Fletcher moved on to a discussion of the possibilities of
deliberately influencing climate. Here he followed the theoretical lead of Russian
scientist M. I. Yudin, who sought to identify critical “instability points” for inter-
vening in the development of cyclones, by changing either their winds or steer-
ing currents or their heat budget. Using back-of-the-envelope calculations that
39
have become de rigueur among geoengineers, Fletcher estimated that it would
take only sixty C-5 aircraft to conduct cloud-seeding operations over the entire
Arctic Basin and to exert “enormous thermal leverage” by creating or dissipating
clouds, influencing the reflectivity of the Arctic pack ice with soot or carbon black,
or even changing the course of ocean currents with macro-engineering projects.
Fletcher again presented his four-stage model of what he called “progress
toward climate control”: “We must observe how nature behaves before we can
understand why, we must understand before we can predict, and we must be able
40
to predict the outcome before we undertake measures for control.” He warned,
however, that while modern technology was already capable of influencing the
global climate system or “heat engine” by altering patterns of thermal forcing,
the consequences of such acts could not be adequately predicted. The situation
was pretty much the same then as it is now. Geoengineers tend to argue linearly,
in a mythical orderly series from science, to engineering, to a public discussion
with other “citizens,” who can then be educated on the wonders of science and
the possibilities of engineering. Prefiguring later optimism, Fletcher thought
that an improved observational system, combining ground stations and satellite
surveillance, paleoclimatic reconstructions, much faster computers, and better
models, would resolve the problems and allow simulations to be performed in
enough detail “to evaluate the consequences of specific climate modification acts.”
He estimated that this capability would be available by 1973, but close to four
decades later it is still a desideratum (for some).
Having spent most of his time on technical speculations, Fletcher turned
briefly to what he called “international cooperation” for the management of
global climatic resources, basing his comments on his assumption that purpose-
ful climate modification deserved the attention of scientific and government
leaders. Repeating the opening lines of Wexler’s lecture (could Fletcher have
been in the audience in 1962?), he invoked John F. Kennedy’s statement to the
United Nations regarding “further co-operative efforts between all nations in
weather prediction and eventually in weather control” (21). Fletcher also cited
a joint congressional resolution of April 1, 1968, to the effect that the United

240 | tHe Climate enGineerS