Page 256 - James Rodger Fleming - Fixing the sky

would be “the development of a more sophisticated theory to explain climatic
change which, in turn will trigger an avalanche of ‘climatic experiments’ testing
the predictions of the improved theory of climate” (22). Is scientific progress lin-
ear? Can it be managed?
The following year, Fletcher issued a report on “managing climatic resources”
in which he came to the “inescapable conclusion” that due to rising population,
greater vulnerabilities, and the irreversible damage being done to the climate sys-
tem, “purposeful management of global climatic resources and control of the plan-
38
et’s climate would eventually become necessary to prevent undesirable changes.”
Citing a recent upsurge of research in weather modification and climate control,
he thought that humanity had reached a technological threshold at which it was
already “within man’s engineering capacity” to influence the global system by alter-
ing patterns of thermal forcing. He considered it feasible to carry out climate-influ-
encing schemes such as creating large inland seas, deflecting ocean currents, seeding
clouds extensively, and (the reverse of today’s sentiment) even removing the Arctic
pack ice. Then, as now, he left unresolved the huge and complex economic, socio-
logical, legal, and political problems that such intervention would generate.
Fletcher stated, in no uncertain terms, that “an increase in Co causes global
2
warming” (2). Referring to the work of Guy Stewart Callendar and Gilbert Plass,
who attributed the warming of the previous century of approximately 0.5°C
(0.9°F) to this cause, he warned that a future warming of three times this amount
or even more could be possible by the year 2000 (this did not happen) and could
bring about “important changes of global climate during the next few decades”
(this might yet happen) (3). Another, longer-term problem that he highlighted,
echoing Budyko, was that heat pollution from energy generation could grow to
rival the energy provided by the Sun. Still, Fletcher hedged his bets by pointing
to the strong negative feedback of increased low-level cloudiness; the assumed
enormous capacity of colder ocean water to absorb carbon dioxide; the 30 per-
cent increase in turbidity, or “global dimming,” due to air pollution and aircraft
condensation trails; and the overall complexity of the climate system, which ren-
ders specific cause-and-effect estimates very uncertain.
After reviewing the complex patterns of past climate change and the work-
ings of the global climate “machine,” Fletcher concluded that the most important
outstanding problem was developing a quantitative understanding of the gen-
eral circulation, especially oceanic heat transport and ocean–atmosphere heat
exchange. (Note that computer modeling was still in its infancy in 1969 and the
El Niño–Southern oscillation [ENSo] had not yet been identified, although
aspects of the El Niño–La Niña system were known.) Fletcher also discussed
feedbacks that acted as “triggers” of climate change and provided the example of

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