Page 243 - James Rodger Fleming - Fixing the sky

organization (WMo), convened a major conference on the topic “The Chang-
ing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security.” The conference statement
captured the tone and urgency first expressed in the 1950s by Roger Revelle and
John von Neumann: “Humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled,
globally pervasive experiment, whose ultimate consequences could be second
2
only to a global nuclear war.” The conference recommended reductions of car-
bon dioxide emissions to 20 percent below 1988 levels, to be achieved by 2005.
Needless to say, we did not reach this goal, but a process had been put into
motion to set new goals and deadlines.
Also in 1988, the WMo and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), whose purpose is to provide periodic assessments of
“the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the under-
3
standing of the risk of human-induced climate change.” From modest beginnings,
the IPCC has emerged as a representative parliamentary body that has gradually
acquired status and authority. It has prepared four major assessments to date, the
first in 1990 in preparation for the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Here the
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) set an ultimate
objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at levels
that would prevent “dangerous” human interference with the climate system. 4
Each of the subsequent IPCC reports (1995, 2001, 2007) has expressed a
sense of greater urgency about the climate change problem. The IPCC consensus
involves six key points:

1. Anthropogenic emissions are changing the composition of the atmosphere,
especially by increasing its radiatively active trace gases.
2. This will enhance the greenhouse effect and will result in long-term global
warming.
3. observed changes in climate on decades-to-centuries time scales are consistent
with human influence.
4. Models indicate that future warming is likely to be substantial.
5. Both environment and society will be adversely impacted.
6. Avoiding dangerous human influence in the climate system will require substan-
tial early actions, but may not provide direct benefits for several generations. 5

It is still not clear what “dangerous human influence” in the climate system actu-
ally is or how to avoid it, but mitigation, adaptation, and intervention through
climate engineering are now on the table. Deindustrialization will also reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, as demonstrated by the political and economic col-
lapse of the Soviet Union.

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